Manhattan Beach Confidential - Latest Comments in MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

Anon — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 11:18:34 -0000

Not sure if this has been mentioned but DQNews has MB with the highest number of $1M sales in the state (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/btao37):" target="_blank"><a href="http://tinyurl.com/btao37):..." target="_blank">http://tinyurl.com/btao37):... Million Dollar Home Sales, ranked by 2008 sales #s 2007 2008 2008's Most Zip Community Sales# Sales# Expensive 90266 Manhattan Beach 403 296 $6.90 mill. 94010 Hillsborough 384 274 $8.26 mill. 95014 Cupertino 396 263 $5.65 mill. 95070 Saratoga 383 260 $5.20 mill. 94025 Menlo Park 323 258 $5.45 mill. 92130 Del Mar 387 247 $5.20 mill. 92037 La Jolla 404 246 $14.39 mill. 90049 Brentwood 332 219 $18.00 mill. 90272 Pacific Palisades 303 214 $16.00 mill. 94506 Danville 424 213 $3.01 mill. 92253 La Quinta 308 208 $5.85 mill. 94024 Los Altos 239 204 $4.58 mill. 90210 Beverly Hills 275 192 $18.00 mill. 90275 Rancho Palos Verde 254 181 $7.50 mill. 94941 Mill Valley 301 178 $5.40 mill. 93108 Santa Barbara 203 175 $26.61 mill. 92651 Laguna Beach 267 173 $7.50 mill. 94114 San Francisco 209 167 $5.63 mill. 94062 Woodside 193 166 $9.50 mill. 94070 San Carlos 236 160 $2.68 mill. 94539 Fremont 292 160 $3.50 mill. 92648 Huntington Beach 221 159 $3.00 mill. 92660 Newport Beach 257 158 $8.16 mill. 94022 Los Altos 208 157 $12.00 mill. 95120 San Jose 279 157 $2.55 mill.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

Anon — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 11:00:51 -0000

Right on target "The Real MB Question"! Certainly the question to ask in following the micro and short-term trend. What will ultimately driver the downturn in the real estate market is the slow and steady grind of the lack of credit in an environ where the median home price to median income ratio is 13, where there is widespread economic distress, including increasing unemployment..., now effecting essentially every sector of the economy and the tsunami of Alt-A and pay-option resets yet to come. It takes a few years for these trends to mature and evolve. Over time, the individual seller's and buyer's psychology will fall in line with this reality. In the long run, buyer/seller psychology is unlikely to effect the multi-year trend substantially. Judging from the last downturn, folks will have to wait AT LEAST a decade for prices to return to current levels and for those folks, if they have cash-flow positive real estate investments, it may well make sense to rent them out; although, as you know, in this economy, rents too are falling, as such, even this equilibrium is difficult to ascertain.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

shoppingaround — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 01:55:01 -0000

When you look at the NY Fed's mortgage map for Alt-A loans, MB doesn' t look too bad, actually. <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/m..." target="_blank"><a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/m..." target="_blank">http://www.newyorkfed.org/m... (Make sure to click on the Alt_A button and not look at "subprime" which comes up as the default). But MB (and RB) do have a higher share of ARM resets in the next 12 months than the surronding areas. May not mean anything significant, but will surely add to the stress levels.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

shoppingaround — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 01:32:19 -0000

Wow. Two thoughtful answers in a row--we're on a roll here! (But i'm sure we'll degrade back into a p*ssing match soon enough.)

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

JLR — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 00:17:24 -0000

Thank you, Angry intern.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

Waiting to Buy — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 17:01:01 -0000

mookie - i don't disagree on your outlook for the dollar vs. other developed nation currencies. however, i'm not so sure about the dollar vs. developing market economies, particularly the resource rich countries. i've got a healthy allocation to gold and silver right now in my pa and feel very good about it. also trying to figure out how i can borrow in dollars (without buying a home!!) and buy sovereign debt in resource rich countries with a good amount of diversification. is there an etf i don't know about? the next six to 12 months might be dicey, but there is not way the dollar, euro, yen, and pound aren't going to get pound-ed.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

gas — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 16:43:20 -0000

pound and the euro have already gotten crushed mookie...you are too late on that one.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

daniel — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 16:35:12 -0000

You gotta think the owner of 444 33rd can't be very happy with his agent. That one is going to hurt.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

econanon — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 15:27:56 -0000

I agree. It turns out that while the US is screwed, all the other countries are completely screwed. Most of the Western European banks went into mortgage backed securities just as the US banks. BUT they also went into emerging market debt, which is also currently imploding. So we have a monumental mess. Their mess is doubly so. No salarly pressure this year. Maybe not unti 2012 or 2013. I am sure government, including CA government is pretty unhappy about that. But what can you do in a credit crisis? It is deflationary by definition, not inflationary. The long term impact may be inflationary, but not now.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

mookie — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 13:54:57 -0000

gas - you seem to think that the US is the only country printing money. Do some homework. All of the countries I mentioned above have their printing presses going 24/7 too. If we were the only ones printing I would agree with you and others, but since it is all relative, our dollar will not fall dramatically vs. most major currencies. In fact, watch the dollar strengthen even more vs. both the euro and pound this year as Europe is in for a world of hurt.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

gas — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 13:33:54 -0000

An additional trillion dollars of debt won't do much to help the dollar.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

mookie — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 13:23:16 -0000

Don't people realize we had a nice dose of inflation in 07 and much of 08. I didn't see RE prices moving higher in that environment. RE as an inflation hedge is completely overrated. As mentioned above, you also need healthy wage inflation, amongst other things. And for those of you who think the dollar is about to collapse, I guess you haven't seen the amount of money being printed in Great Britain, Germany, Spain, Russia, China, and most other developed countries. At the same time, their banking system is quite possible worse than ours. If you take a look at Tier 1 Captial Ratios, the best measure of banks balance sheets vs risk based assets, you'll see the likes of UBS, DB, RBS, Barclays, Santander, etc at relatively low levels. If you look at measures of leverage, the foreign banks like UBS, CS, DB are still in the high 20s and low 30s X their capital. US Banks are all in the mid to low teens. Don't think for a second the dollar will fall dramatically vs. the Euro, pound, or other major currencies.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

U R Beyond Therapy — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 11:19:05 -0000

Any chance you can stop obsessing about your neighbors toys on a walk street you don't live on? Didn't think so, Idiot Professional Lady.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

Your Therapist — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 10:18:52 -0000

Any chance we can stick to opinions with out insults? Set an example for your kids.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

Your Angry — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 04:18:22 -0000

Chill. Your rant is a little creepy. I heard about the sales figures too. It was in the Beach Reporter last week when the city was talking about its deficit. Pretty interesting stuff. I haven't seen anyone on this blog dispute it.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

Your Obsession — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 00:14:05 -0000

Just the lies, this is the ninth time you've posted this. You must want to buy in MB pretty badly to continually indulge this compulsion. Then again, your tiny maggot-infested brain has so little going on that this must give you some solace.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

Just The Facts — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 21:51:58 -0000

MB City Officials noted they are expecting a decrease in real estate transaction funds by 55.6% this year...therefore, the city is anticipating a decline in sales of 55.6% over last year. Inventory will rise, buyers will be presented with more options and it will truly become a "buyers market." No marketplace is without it's cycles. Prices will be lower throughout the year, sales will be slower, it's really not anymore sexy than that. You may continue making noise.....

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

Please Do — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 21:34:45 -0000

Why, are jumping off something because you lost your job?

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

marineland — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 20:34:25 -0000

Any thoughts on the two houses for sale on the 400 block of Marine? 428 recently bought and now quickly resold without any major changes/updates?

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

alice in huggyland — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 20:04:35 -0000

Huggy: Look at the comps, they are only slightly down. Huggy: Dont look at the comps, they are totally irrelevant. huggz, keep it up. the tide is slowly overwhelming even your tireless efforts. by the time it finally sinks into your pin head, the market will be turning. you will be the ultimate indicator of a bottom.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

JLR — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 19:54:04 -0000

As Angry yelled and screamed so many months ago: it's all about supply and demand. Lookout below!

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

negative inflation — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 18:31:11 -0000

Yeah, we just need some 12% SALARY inflation and your thesis will work. Right now we've got rising unemployment and dropping asset prices. Inflation is next year's boogeyman. Deflatiion is the one in the room right now.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

MB_Watcher — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 18:17:04 -0000

Thanks OWhoK.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

One who knows — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 17:52:26 -0000

772 Rosecrans went into contract at $760K...the true limus test of value! The lender however forced the appraisal down to $744K.

Re: MB Market Update for 1/31/09 - Inventory

Waiting to Buy — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 17:06:10 -0000

If most of the brokers I've met at open houses followed this blog, they'd know an awful lot more about MB RE than they currently do. 90% of the ones I've spoken with are an absolute joke.