DISQUS

shoppingaround · 1 year ago

MBC, Why would I want to review/print both 1/15 and 1/31? Isn't all the 1/15 data on 1/31? Or is printing/reviewing both just for those who want to see the progression? Thanks, I'm very tired and not thinking straight.

nonproview · 1 year ago

MB total listings per MRMLS - 322* (up 69% yoy and up 18 from the prior week) *Note - MRMLS numbers include homes, land for sale and leases available It's interesting to note that "open houses" will be over 100 this weekend. That's 86 per TBR and at least another 20 or so not advertised. Disclaimer - I completely realize these numbers will get blasted by whomever. But they're useful for my purposes as a semi big picture snapshot of the trends. I've been tracking the same sources for 2 years, which is when we started looking to buy back in. We sold a large home 4 years ago when we attained "Empty Nester" status (both kids in college) and would like to find something smaller. Our "house money" has been sitting, mostly in T Bills and CD's, getting around 2% after taxes. I figure we'll have probably close to $1,000,000 (maybe more) in total savings considering investment earnings and market depreciation when, as I see it now, we get serious about buying in the next 12-18 months. We've definitely saved a bundle already.

abe · 1 year ago

This inventory is coming at the worst possible time. Buyers are gun shy due to fear of losing their jobs. And those buyers that have secure jobs and cash for down payments are shifting their attention to gated communities. After all, with a four year recession coming towards us, it makes sense to shelter your family from recession driven crime. Talk to the MB PD - violent crime in MB always goes up during recessions -

anon · 1 year ago

Compound that with January sales results.... Per MBW, 221 34th ($3.315m) 772 Rosecrans ($744k) 1900 Laurel ($1.250m) If I had to guess, inventory should break the 190 he is forecasting since sales pace is far less than last spring.

Crime Wave Clarified · 1 year ago

Abe is another COTC loon who can't stand facts. This is what the Easy Reader reported just yesterday regarding MBPD Chief Uyeda's comments to the city council on Tuesday - "Contrary to popular belief and recent news headlines, major crimes in the city decreased in 2008 and there have been no robberies in the past 30 days, Police Chief Uyeda reported at Tuesday's city council meeting." In fact, major crime was down 9% compared to 2007 (15% if you exclude theft) and42% over the past 10 years! So much for recession-driven crime in Manhattan Beach. Good news, Abe and the rest of the COTC chicken littles, you can come out from under your beds again. Oh, and for the record, there has been no shift to gated communities by homebuyers - what a loon!

Waiting... · 1 year ago

2829 Valley just sold for $1,650,000. There was a home nearby that sold in SEpt of 2007, 3113 Valley (same dimensions, brand new) for $2,250,000. Wow. This is a direct comparable. In 1 1/2 years, down 27%.

One Home Data Sample · 1 year ago

Good one, Waiting. I was wondering when the COTC would start resorting to single home sales (and not even the same home) to establish market parameters. Might as well resign yourself to perma-renter status if your finances are in as good shape as your understanding of statistics. Fwiw, 3113 Valley and 2829 Valley are significantly different in terms of the type of home. 3113 Valley is one of the first 'green' homes in MB, with solar electric and many other eco-friendly features. Not saying 3113 Valley would command $2,250,000 today but it's a better home than 2829 Valley. Apples-to-apples, folks.

Well look at you · 1 year ago

I always wondered about posts like the one from nonproview. Does it make them feel smarter/better to hear themselves boast outload? Can I please be you?

nonproview · 1 year ago

Sorry, you aren't me and I'm not you (lucky for both of us). Not boasting and sorry if it appeared as such. However, I am pleased that my decision to hold on to our money is looking better all the time. Afterall, that's why we chose to do what we did. How is it said? "Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile."?

The Real MB Question · 1 year ago

We're going to find out the Answer to the question that's been hanging over the MB Real Estate market over the last year+. As Huggy as pointed out, MB homeowners/sellers generally are less sensitive to economic conditions as they tend to have greater savings and general stamina to weather storms. Because of this, the MB housing market has not seen the downturns seen in less exclusive markets. But the question has been, once the market ills start hitting MB and the inventory increases, will MB Homeowners react the way homeowners have elsewhere? By dramatically lowering prices. As we've seen, many homeowners have withdrawn their houses from the market when they didn't sell at the prices they liked. Others have rented out their dwellings. We have NOT seen much foreclosure activity. Still.... HOW MANY MB HOMEOWNERS REALLY NEED TO OR REALLY, REALLY WANT TO SELL THEIR HOME --- AND CAN'T WAIT AN INDETERMINATE AMOUNT OF TIME TO DO SO? Are MB homeowners resilient and not in need of selling (Huggy's theory)? Are MB homeowners like everyone else and will need to sell thereby lowering prices (COTC theory)?

Train to Weimer · 1 year ago

nonproview, pray that that Helicopter Ben and the "brain trust" in D.C. don't accomplish their engineered destruction of the dollar in the next 12 to 18 months while you are sitting on your pile of soon to be devalued cash.

High inflation Yikes · 1 year ago

Train is right. That 2% return won't cover the 12% inflation rate. Isn't buying a house a good inflation hedge? Provided your income (in nominal dollars) keeps pace with inflation? Hasn't anyone in the government taken basic economics courses? Although, like all university studies, politics influences academia. When I studied at the LSE, my professor was a devout Keynesian. I wrote a paper (or exam) about how Reaganomics was actually Keynesian (demand side vs. supply side)-- the professor ate it up and gave me an A or A+ or something ludicrous -- espcially considering it wasn't all that true. But I knew what he liked. Some people just trust government bureaucrats more than average citizens. I just don't know why.

Yukon Cornelius · 1 year ago

Silver and Gold, Silver and Gold.

wondering · 1 year ago

why buy now? anyone have an answer?

Waiting... · 1 year ago

These agents just crack me up. You all just shoot from the hip and really have no idea what you are talking about. 3113 Valley advertised on it's MLS listing " "this brand new GREEN Cape Cod style home was buildt under USGBC-LEED standards equip with all of the energy savings features, and without compromising any of the luxuries..." Apples to Apples folks. Nice try, One Home Data Sample. I'm not from out of state. I'm a resident from Manhattan Beach following home sales very closely. Where did I say the entire market was down 27% in my posting. I seriously considered the purchase of 3113 Valley. However, all of the economic indicators showed prices were coming down. These agents think they are so smart because they made some good money over a housing boom. Many of you look so stupid and lack any real business tactics in a down market. So many homes are overpriced. Don't you get you will be getting way less if you wait another 6 months.

comps · 1 year ago

funny, fight the good fight huggy, its working! im estimating all that "green" crap like solar electric (you know how important that $50 a month savings is!) is worth about zero right now. that $650K they threw down a rathole, now thats some "green"

wondering · 1 year ago

anyone have thoughts on 511 dianthus? if that chop from 1.4 to 1.1 is a sign of things to come, maybe some inventory will move in MB after all. at 1.1 you could in theory get an FHA loan and a HELOC or 2nd on top of it and get a decent blended interest rate.

MB Homer · 1 year ago

It would take way too much time and there is no monetary benefit to it, but I think it would be interesting to see how much each listed property on the market today was purchased for and the size and type of loan. That would be a good indicator of how much equity there is in MB. Is it resilient enough to withstand the recession or are there a plethora of creative loans that are going to create problems? Remember, just because an owner has a creative loan doesn't necessarily mean they are going to be in trouble. What's the consensus?

Saved BY No Money · 1 year ago

Yeah, Waiting, you were all set to buy alright. Thank god your bank account saved you, loser. You COTC just crack me up. You all just shoot from the hip and really have no idea what you are talking about. Don't you get you will never buy (for both psychological and financial reasons) so why even follow the market (if you call tuning in to MBC 'following the market')?

Anon · 1 year ago

No sales = No commission = Huggy can't pay his power bill.

Answer'sInTheMiddle · 1 year ago

The answer is in the middle - those that need to sell their home (divorce, job relo, job loss or the tiny number of financially distressed sellers) will lower their price and sell; those that don't absolutely need to sell will hold out and/or rent out their homes.

To each his own · 1 year ago

Why would you continually use a known bad data source to make any decision? The descrepencies are due to slow update cycles, no deduplication, etc. "Semi-big picture"? I hope you're not an engineer, or god forbid a health care professional. Its expensive and time consuming to keep data accurate - right MBC?

BlackandWhite · 1 year ago

Answer's, Stop making sense and pick a side. What are you, new? The Real MB Question gave 2 choices and you have to pick one. In all seriousness, I agree with you with one exception. Some folks looking to move up will sell for lower if the house they want moves to within striking distance.

anon · 1 year ago

Your apples-to-apples comment makes no sense. 3113 was the "green" house and 2829 was not.

Waiting... · 1 year ago

2829 Valley is a good comp for new/newer homes on busy streets (like 3413 Pacific). Saved BY No Money, someone called you on your BS and you just lashed out in personal attacks. Your lack of knowledge on homes proves you are making close to nothing in commissions during this housing downturn. I

eyes wide shut · 1 year ago

The only thing "green" about 3113 is the additional currency used to buy it, oh, and that little area behind your ears. Save any argument that 3113 Valley was special, please! This reasoning further indicates that a nearly direct comp would be glazed over by you in your attempt to force a sale. Something tells me the new owners of 2829 could sprinkle a little of their saved greenbacks on their new home and magically create some "energy saving features" without much of a problem. Lastly, after speaking to a few neighbors and their friends during the Super Bowl, I wouldn't be so quick to underestimate how many people come here for the data that for some reason is not provided to them by their agent.

keep wondering · 1 year ago

Those loans won't work in reality. Sorry. Perhaps Huggy can explain why, he seems to have more patience than I do. The Dianthus home simply doesn't work for the average homebuyer who is usually buying to raise a family or already has a few rugrats. It's market is more for older couples that are downsizing or for single women. Either way, it's a challenging house surrounded by typical McMansions. And it's selling for considerably over lot value. Adding on to the house or scraping and starting over are the only ways to make it attractive to the typical buyer. At the current price, it's not cost-effective.

MB_Watcher · 1 year ago

I failed to post the 1/15 sheets before. They will show price cuts, new listings and what sold in the first half of the month. What's "new" for January is on the 1/31 sheets, too, but not marked as such if they're from the first half of the month...

I "heart" MB · 1 year ago

It is sad and just plain racist. I hate seeing comments like that on this blog. It really shows a person's true ignorance.

MB_Watcher · 1 year ago

I've deleted a series of comments that began with "Rolling Hills" saying he/she prefers to live in a different community due to concerns over future crime. That has no relevance to this story. Please keep posts on topic. Try the "Open Forum" for off-topic issues.

MB_Watcher · 1 year ago

It takes a lot of time. The best we can do is cover this case-by-case with active listings, and even then, you never have a complete picture as to what's owed. I rarely, if ever, post loan info because I expect it to be incomplete. If you're honing in an actual transaction you can usually get specific data on the sellers' situation.

MB_Watcher · 1 year ago

You're commenting on a deleted comment. I too found that remark distasteful but it was just one of a series that was removed. I am not going to allow similar stuff to stay up for long in the future.

Waiting to Buy · 1 year ago

If most of the brokers I've met at open houses followed this blog, they'd know an awful lot more about MB RE than they currently do. 90% of the ones I've spoken with are an absolute joke.

One who knows · 1 year ago

772 Rosecrans went into contract at $760K...the true limus test of value! The lender however forced the appraisal down to $744K.

MB_Watcher · 1 year ago

Thanks OWhoK.

negative inflation · 1 year ago

Yeah, we just need some 12% SALARY inflation and your thesis will work. Right now we've got rising unemployment and dropping asset prices. Inflation is next year's boogeyman. Deflatiion is the one in the room right now.

JLR · 1 year ago

As Angry yelled and screamed so many months ago: it's all about supply and demand. Lookout below!

alice in huggyland · 1 year ago

Huggy: Look at the comps, they are only slightly down. Huggy: Dont look at the comps, they are totally irrelevant. huggz, keep it up. the tide is slowly overwhelming even your tireless efforts. by the time it finally sinks into your pin head, the market will be turning. you will be the ultimate indicator of a bottom.

marineland · 1 year ago

Any thoughts on the two houses for sale on the 400 block of Marine? 428 recently bought and now quickly resold without any major changes/updates?

Please Do · 1 year ago

Why, are jumping off something because you lost your job?

Just The Facts · 1 year ago

MB City Officials noted they are expecting a decrease in real estate transaction funds by 55.6% this year...therefore, the city is anticipating a decline in sales of 55.6% over last year. Inventory will rise, buyers will be presented with more options and it will truly become a "buyers market." No marketplace is without it's cycles. Prices will be lower throughout the year, sales will be slower, it's really not anymore sexy than that. You may continue making noise.....

Your Obsession · 1 year ago

Just the lies, this is the ninth time you've posted this. You must want to buy in MB pretty badly to continually indulge this compulsion. Then again, your tiny maggot-infested brain has so little going on that this must give you some solace.

Your Angry · 1 year ago

Chill. Your rant is a little creepy. I heard about the sales figures too. It was in the Beach Reporter last week when the city was talking about its deficit. Pretty interesting stuff. I haven't seen anyone on this blog dispute it.

Your Therapist · 1 year ago

Any chance we can stick to opinions with out insults? Set an example for your kids.

U R Beyond Therapy · 1 year ago

Any chance you can stop obsessing about your neighbors toys on a walk street you don't live on? Didn't think so, Idiot Professional Lady.

mookie · 1 year ago

Don't people realize we had a nice dose of inflation in 07 and much of 08. I didn't see RE prices moving higher in that environment. RE as an inflation hedge is completely overrated. As mentioned above, you also need healthy wage inflation, amongst other things. And for those of you who think the dollar is about to collapse, I guess you haven't seen the amount of money being printed in Great Britain, Germany, Spain, Russia, China, and most other developed countries. At the same time, their banking system is quite possible worse than ours. If you take a look at Tier 1 Captial Ratios, the best measure of banks balance sheets vs risk based assets, you'll see the likes of UBS, DB, RBS, Barclays, Santander, etc at relatively low levels. If you look at measures of leverage, the foreign banks like UBS, CS, DB are still in the high 20s and low 30s X their capital. US Banks are all in the mid to low teens. Don't think for a second the dollar will fall dramatically vs. the Euro, pound, or other major currencies.

gas · 1 year ago

An additional trillion dollars of debt won't do much to help the dollar.

mookie · 1 year ago

gas - you seem to think that the US is the only country printing money. Do some homework. All of the countries I mentioned above have their printing presses going 24/7 too. If we were the only ones printing I would agree with you and others, but since it is all relative, our dollar will not fall dramatically vs. most major currencies. In fact, watch the dollar strengthen even more vs. both the euro and pound this year as Europe is in for a world of hurt.

econanon · 1 year ago

I agree. It turns out that while the US is screwed, all the other countries are completely screwed. Most of the Western European banks went into mortgage backed securities just as the US banks. BUT they also went into emerging market debt, which is also currently imploding. So we have a monumental mess. Their mess is doubly so. No salarly pressure this year. Maybe not unti 2012 or 2013. I am sure government, including CA government is pretty unhappy about that. But what can you do in a credit crisis? It is deflationary by definition, not inflationary. The long term impact may be inflationary, but not now.

daniel · 1 year ago

You gotta think the owner of 444 33rd can't be very happy with his agent. That one is going to hurt.

gas · 1 year ago

pound and the euro have already gotten crushed mookie...you are too late on that one.

Waiting to Buy · 1 year ago

mookie - i don't disagree on your outlook for the dollar vs. other developed nation currencies. however, i'm not so sure about the dollar vs. developing market economies, particularly the resource rich countries. i've got a healthy allocation to gold and silver right now in my pa and feel very good about it. also trying to figure out how i can borrow in dollars (without buying a home!!) and buy sovereign debt in resource rich countries with a good amount of diversification. is there an etf i don't know about? the next six to 12 months might be dicey, but there is not way the dollar, euro, yen, and pound aren't going to get pound-ed.

JLR · 1 year ago

Thank you, Angry intern.

shoppingaround · 1 year ago

Wow. Two thoughtful answers in a row--we're on a roll here! (But i'm sure we'll degrade back into a p*ssing match soon enough.)

shoppingaround · 1 year ago

When you look at the NY Fed's mortgage map for Alt-A loans, MB doesn' t look too bad, actually. <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/" target="_blank">http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/ (Make sure to click on the Alt_A button and not look at "subprime" which comes up as the default). But MB (and RB) do have a higher share of ARM resets in the next 12 months than the surronding areas. May not mean anything significant, but will surely add to the stress levels.

Anon · 1 year ago

Right on target "The Real MB Question"! Certainly the question to ask in following the micro and short-term trend. What will ultimately driver the downturn in the real estate market is the slow and steady grind of the lack of credit in an environ where the median home price to median income ratio is 13, where there is widespread economic distress, including increasing unemployment..., now effecting essentially every sector of the economy and the tsunami of Alt-A and pay-option resets yet to come. It takes a few years for these trends to mature and evolve. Over time, the individual seller's and buyer's psychology will fall in line with this reality. In the long run, buyer/seller psychology is unlikely to effect the multi-year trend substantially. Judging from the last downturn, folks will have to wait AT LEAST a decade for prices to return to current levels and for those folks, if they have cash-flow positive real estate investments, it may well make sense to rent them out; although, as you know, in this economy, rents too are falling, as such, even this equilibrium is difficult to ascertain.

Anon · 1 year ago

Not sure if this has been mentioned but DQNews has MB with the highest number of $1M sales in the state (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/btao37):" target="_blank">http://tinyurl.com/btao37): Million Dollar Home Sales, ranked by 2008 sales #s 2007 2008 2008's Most Zip Community Sales# Sales# Expensive 90266 Manhattan Beach 403 296 $6.90 mill. 94010 Hillsborough 384 274 $8.26 mill. 95014 Cupertino 396 263 $5.65 mill. 95070 Saratoga 383 260 $5.20 mill. 94025 Menlo Park 323 258 $5.45 mill. 92130 Del Mar 387 247 $5.20 mill. 92037 La Jolla 404 246 $14.39 mill. 90049 Brentwood 332 219 $18.00 mill. 90272 Pacific Palisades 303 214 $16.00 mill. 94506 Danville 424 213 $3.01 mill. 92253 La Quinta 308 208 $5.85 mill. 94024 Los Altos 239 204 $4.58 mill. 90210 Beverly Hills 275 192 $18.00 mill. 90275 Rancho Palos Verde 254 181 $7.50 mill. 94941 Mill Valley 301 178 $5.40 mill. 93108 Santa Barbara 203 175 $26.61 mill. 92651 Laguna Beach 267 173 $7.50 mill. 94114 San Francisco 209 167 $5.63 mill. 94062 Woodside 193 166 $9.50 mill. 94070 San Carlos 236 160 $2.68 mill. 94539 Fremont 292 160 $3.50 mill. 92648 Huntington Beach 221 159 $3.00 mill. 92660 Newport Beach 257 158 $8.16 mill. 94022 Los Altos 208 157 $12.00 mill. 95120 San Jose 279 157 $2.55 mill.