DISQUS

No Agenda Here · 10 months ago

Whoever thought this downturn was a quick 6 month blip and then back to normal, is a moron. The market is in free fall and the bottom is no where in sight.

Don't Drink Koolaid · 10 months ago

What's so stunning about the turnaround? Frankly I more impressed with the resilience of the MB market. I don't expect it to last as the housng downturn (and now economic recession) is just starting to impact MB.

see4yourself · 10 months ago

Just about every indiciator points to still lower price levels. Inventories are heading higher, much higher. realtor.com total for MB - 304 (up 55% yoy) I realize this is a raw number, but it's the SAME raw number I've been tracking for 2 years (when we sold and began to shop, leasing in the meantime) ziprealty.com - 266 (up 47% yoy) same caveat as above Current leanding standards require significant skin in the game in order to get a mortgage. Monies that could easily vaporize not too far down the road. All this at a time when a lanky lefty has taken the mound and is dealing some high & tight, hard heat directly at the potential buyers in our market. Higher federal taxes are definitely on the way. Look for higher state taxes to follow. BTW, there will be over 100 open houses in MB this weekend. That's either a lot of empty homes, a large number of owners willing to go through the hassle of vacating their abode, or both.

Read All About It · 10 months ago

Interesting article from the Daily Breeze today, "South Bay home prices continue downward slide" Relevant to MB (but maybe more so to EMB): **** "You know something is going on when you start Advertisement getting two, three, four times the listings than sales," said Realtor Adolph James, who specializes in the beach cities. James, who works out of Shorewood Realtors in Manhattan Beach, spends much of his efforts in the area around Mira Costa High School. "For the last five, six, eight years, the average number of listings available in that area was eight to 12," James said. "As we speak, I think we're pushing 40. Yeah, it's tough." Shorewood's James said he expects to see a bottom to the housing market within the next two years. "It wouldn't be a surprise if it's mid to late next year, but it's not going to be '09," James said. "The bottom line is that real estate moves 3 percent a year, and we had years where it moved up 13, 14, 15 percent. And we're giving it back now." **** Very interesting that he's calling bottom next year. Seems very in line with most of the posters on this blog.

anon · 10 months ago

I believe the two recent town house listings on Marine in the Sand Section are also below there recent acquisition prices. We're headed considerably lower, just look at the stock market, who wants to jump into a house purchase with all assets going lower and taxes going higher, not the best combo.

firewatcher · 10 months ago

once again, why buy now? check out charts of the nikkei, nasdaq, oil, china. all bubbles, all now at fractions of their highs, and likely never too see those highs again. thats what the back side of a bubble looks like. homes in MB will trade around where the incomes will support them...call it 250 - 300k per household for the family stuff in the trees or east, more in the sand or strand. call that 1 - 1.5mm for tree homes. we are definitely getting there with the palm fail house pricing. crushing the speculators and throwing their burnt corpses off the train is good for everyone who actually just wants a house.

govt · 10 months ago

this is just a quick note to anyone looking to sell this spring: cut your prices or get left for another year. slicing 25k off of a 2m house isnt going to get anyone off the fence. pricing a house deep in the trees near rosecrans at 2.2m isnt going to get anyone to pull the trigger. in the most recent existing homes survey, the entire western region (ca, wa, nv, nm, or) logged only 4,000 home sales. a car is too big a purchase for people psychologically...they are 'putting off' all large capital spending, which of course includes your house. 650/ft isnt going to get anyone excited, but 450 might. you certainly dont have to cut, but you will have to get lucky and nab one of those 2 or 3 sales that will get done at full price this spring. if you fail, you will get left behind. this has been a public service announcement, you may now continue with your regular programming.

Loser's Lament Part3 · 10 months ago

In my continuing effort to update the COTC on their loser status, I thought it appropriate to note the many sales of older homes and teardowns lately to end users who appear to be planning, at some point, to build their own homes (or at least remodel the existing homes). West of Sepulveda, these would include: 1205 Walnut (In Escrow) 2615 Crest (In Escrow, Sold over Asking) 112 Manhattan (In Escrow, Sold Over Asking) 1900 Laurel (Closed Jan 13 for $1,250,000) 1733 Elm (In Escrow) Did I mention that without the stiff competition from builders, now is an excellent time to hunt for that ideal lot on which to build your dream home in the future? Of course, now you've got to compete with all the other buyers thinking the same thing (112 Manhattan, for example, had half a dozen offers, I hear). For those with real dough (sorry, losers, that leaves you out) and little patience for the task of rebuilding, I noticed that 930 John just closed escrow for $3.7 million while 133 17th (listed for $3,450,000) and 132 19th (listed for $3,650,000) both just recently went into escrow (the latter just yesterday). Sorry, COTC, couldn't resist. You may now retreat back under your bedcovers.

Bob · 10 months ago

I thought the owners of 2909 Elm got smart finally. They may be regretting they did not take the offer and run a year ago. But a year from now, they will feel good that they got 1.5M for the house.

That Was Then · 10 months ago

You should not expect to make money on a short term hold. Real estate will result in profit over the longer term, particularly thanks to the magic of leverage and tax advantages, etc. (Even with the new tax plan.) What we saw in MB and everywhere in the middle part of the decade was an anomaly. The "new normal" did not last very long. I sincerely hope people who bought here thinking MB real estate only goes up can batten down now and wait out a very severe correction. Those who erred will be selling to some of the posters here for steep discounts.

This Is Now · 10 months ago

The posters here, for the most part, are card-carrying converts to the Cult of the Clueless. As such, they are marginally-employed with marginal finances and will not be buying anything until Strand properties hit an asking price of about $10,000. I know, the COTC still think that will happen someday so far be it from me to kill their buzz by intruding with reality.

carry on · 10 months ago

huggy, you are missing the point here. just because a few anecdotal homes have sold doesnt mean anything. i expect some of the overpriced listings will in fact get bought. thats the way any market works (especially real estate), it doesnt go down in a straight line. the problem is going to be that the volume of real buyers is lower than the volume of listings, and a good number of those sellers are going to get stuck. and as far as the lack of competition from builders, that means that the construction financing pipe is shut off, and its not coming back for a while. try to get a bank to finance your spec real estate project, you will get laughed at. and as for the tons of offers on certain places, its a silly assertion. the last few open houses i have been to, which have been top quality and pretty well priced homes, have been completely empty (except for the bored looking realtor that is).

bernanke · 10 months ago

its a pretty good inflation hedge too, since you are projecting 30 years of payments you can afford today, and the currency is inflating. of course, in a deflationary environment like right now its backwards, but all that printing of cash is going to fire up inflation at some point.

Sandpiper · 10 months ago

Huggy, we are going to have to start referring to you as 'Baghdad Bob.' if you keep spinning like this.

huggyoryourlyin'eyes · 10 months ago

Another waste of bandwith from a has-been...maybe never-was relevent real estate salesman/colossal Putz. The market will continue down regardless of his pathetic postings to the contrary.

Only The Facts · 10 months ago

Sorry, carry on, I only speak in facts, not fantasy (biggest contrast between me and the COTC). Don't believe me; call the listing agents for either 112 Manhattan or 1733 Elm and ask them how many offers they had - that's why they (and 2615 Crest, for that matter) all will sell for over list. You may now resume your fantasy that no one is buying right now. How's that working for you?

sitbackandwatch · 10 months ago

Inflation, when it does show up, will likely not include real estate prices. They are grossly inflated already and will only head down for some time to come. It's credit availability and incomes that drive real estate prices in the long run. And we're talking a very long run this go-round.

In the meantime · 10 months ago

So we've had one actual close in over a month? That is not impressive. And the last time I heard, escrow meant "escrow". Keep us posted though, friend. If they close, you've got yourself some comps.

shutup&getthecommish · 10 months ago

There will be buyers all the way down, just fewer and fewer as time goes on...

MB_Watcher · 10 months ago

125 El Porto hit the market today, marked up over the July 2008 price. A very short hold. Then: $1.395m. Now: $1.549m. Listing says remodeled, but since last summer? Hmmm. Listing: <a href="http://tinyurl.com/aheh3v" target="_blank">http://tinyurl.com/aheh3v

El Guapo · 10 months ago

It is a pretty good inflation hedge, but just not quite yet. Wage inflation is what matters (to prop up housing prices). Garden variety inflation will show up first, followed someday by wage inflation. We're a ways away from wage inflation when the GDP contracts 6.2% and unemployment is rising with a bullet. Of course with inflation, interest rates will go up - suppressing prices as well.

repub grissle · 10 months ago

economy is tanking... everything is way over priced... the 'me me me' psycology hasn't reset itself yet and neither have prices. But it will...

thx · 10 months ago

typical huggy...decry anecdotal data and then trot out some anecdotal data. wow, someone was dumb enough to buy a home right now? the market is back! someone also bought citigroup stock a couple of weeks ago at $10, doesnt mean the market is healthy.

hedge · 10 months ago

probably true. however, the magnitude of the print-a-thon is going to also eclipse anything in the past. it will be an attempt to re-flate our way out of 2 big things: entitlements and debts. since they are denominated in $, print away!

watcher · 10 months ago

they put in a $200k granite countertop. carry on.

You&amp;#039;re Welcome · 10 months ago

Typical COTC - This whole site is about anecdotal data but as soon as your publish some buzz-killing facts, the COTC goes off the rails. Also, glad you got the COTC mantra in there - all buyers are dummies. But us less financially well off renters, we're the smart ones, and superb market timers as well (I guess when you see a great buildable lot that you know you can't afford, market-timing and prayer is all you've got left).

Melissa · 10 months ago

Curiosity is getting the better of me... what's up with 2602 Pacific? It's been on, off, on, off and back on the market; no description, very little information and the same price. It doesn't seem like the seller is really interested in selling. Just wondering if there is a story there. Also, what is the "land fee?"

Almost Forgot · 10 months ago

Regarding lots that the well-heeled seem to be snapping up while the losers gnash their teeth in despair, I almost forgot about the recent run on premium South section lots at 204 and 208 The Strand (both priced at $6,800,000 and both in escrow) as well as the builder's purchase of 128 6th Street for $2,625,000 (closed in December - never reported on the MLS). Also, we now have a closed sale price on 133 17th - $3,250,000. Clueless ones, you may now go back to hiding under your beds because surely the sky is falling.

Otto Matic · 10 months ago

huggy, keep posting. this is clearly a great (and maybe the only) way for you to vent and let out some of your anger. without this, i would expect you to go postal quickly.

XXOO · 10 months ago

Yes, but why not mention of the lengthy histories for some of these and the extreme reduction on The Strand? All this tells me is that sellers are beginning to get a grip on reality and are beginning to at least consider the possibility that in order to sell they must price aggressively.

timer · 10 months ago

i want an entry level home in the trees for between 1 and 1.3 million. doesnt have to be new build, but it has to be long term livable aka not a tear down. ive been waiting for a couple of years for this, thinking that the listing prices of 2.5 - 2.7m at the peak about 18 months ago were a head-scratcher. as in "if i had enough $ to buy a 3m house, would i want this to be my 3m house?" the answer of course was no. well, here we are 18 mos later, and it looks like the 2.7 listed new builds are anywhere from 1.5 at the low end to maybe 2.1m for high end stuff. just another couple ticks to go, come on market! i knew it would take a depression for this to finally happen!

In the trees... · 10 months ago

you just described my house..remodeled and all. now to find the affordable up leg....

question · 10 months ago

again, why buy now?

you know · 10 months ago

the smart sellers are looking at things from the buyers perspective and saying "why buy now?"

Bob · 10 months ago

Psychology plays an important role in the housing market. In the good old days, once a house is listed in a fancy place like MB, people tried to outbid one another, very afraid of losing the house. Nowadays, no one is afraid of that any more. If a house has been on the market for 9 months (pretty common), no one is going to rush to make an offer since it is unlikely to go anywhere any time soon. That kind of mentality hurts house prices.

it happens · 10 months ago

it also hurts (or helps depending on who you are) when you can see that the owners are realtors who bought it in 2006 and want a 20% markup for their albatross. or that you can see who the owner is, what mortgage they have and can google them to find out everything else you need to be an informed buyer. more informed than the agents usually. in that context, you say to yourself "do i want someone who bought this thing 2 years ago walking away with a 200k profit from my pocketbook?" and the answer is of course no.

knifecatcher · 10 months ago

the new mentality is "if they can get that price, good for them, but i aint payin it!" as well as "i wonder what moron is planning to pay that price?"

bob · 10 months ago

I agree completely. And Huggy pestered his clients in to buying in 2006 - spouted the same BS he spouts here - against their better judgement they agreed to listen to him. as a result the clients that trusted Huggy are bleeding out every one of their orifices. Trusting Huggy has resulted in them burning through their down payments. And no floor is in sight. Huggy better watch his back. Those clients will be looking for revenge

Losers Lament, Part4 · 10 months ago

As a further update, I noticed that 2615 closed for $1.2 (listed at $1,175,000). You know what that means, losers? That's right, multiple bids for a prime half-lot (it'll be torn down, I'm sure). In fact, I'm pretty sure the Crest buyers were also in the bidding war for 129 1st (Joe Montana's old place, also in escrow) but lost out. Oh, and Bob, stop bs'ing us about you being a buyer with serious cash from a previous home sale back east. The "mature" tone of your comments clearly indicate you've never owned a home, at least not in this country. Oh, wait, I forgot that Appalachia is a part of this country. And it's back east. Sorry, Bob, my bad.

noname · 10 months ago

wow, 2 deals got done. better inform the 25 mediocre and super stale listings about the good news. im sure they are also getting dozens and dozens of offers. why all this activity you speak of, yet no people (literally) at open houses? curious divergence from reality methinks.

XOXO · 10 months ago

Why does one's mature tone make them less credible? My goodness what a spot-on comment from our favorite "That Guy" on this fine Friday afternoon. You prefer your own sarcasm and accusatory rubbish to Bob's justifiable questions and valid contributions, do you? Sorry in advance Bob...you're about to get blasted that this post is "you in disguise"...

WhatTheCOTCisGood At · 10 months ago

Divergence from reality? Isn't that the COTC's permanent state? Sorry, noname, if my facts continue to cause you and the rest of your clueless cohorts psychic pain. And why are you wandering into open houses? Looking for prescription meds to boost?

anyone hiring? · 10 months ago

how many deals have you closed this year?

Anon · 10 months ago

Huggy, you are a complete moron. You just wasted your breath painting a picture of ensuing bidding wars for multiple homes, in an article about 4 homes that are underwater. Your data may be correct, but the picture you paint is all smoke and mirrors. The near future is grim. Open your eyes, LOSER. Pull your head out of the sand.

COTR Hater · 10 months ago

Why buy now? So you can watch the value of your home dwindle. It's the anti-american dream.

downward spiral · 10 months ago

huggy = 0 sales. not surprising given his truly twisted worldview. no cookie for you this year huggzter

Need to know · 10 months ago

MBW describes 3505 Pacific as having a "Big Location Challenge". Granted, all you see in the distance as you drive home up Pacific from points south is a towering Refinery stack. And just across Rosecrans from you is this huge structure with three holes in it that spews fumes into the air 24/7. But isn't that just steam? Is the location that bad? Does the refinery smell? Is that dependent on wind shifts? Is the refinery unhealthy? Is it foolish, careless or worse for families with small children to buy near there? Other than the refinery, what else is "challenging" about the location? Is Pacific REALLY that bad/busy a street? Finally, which elementary school is "better" Grandview or Pacific? thx.

sad · 10 months ago

from the american dream to the american ream. from a white picket fence to getting fisted by an ARM.

huggy · 10 months ago

bob gets it. he cant figure out "why buy now?" when everything is pointing down?

Bitter,Bitter,Bitter · 10 months ago

Wow, Anon, you just gave us the perfect example of what it means to be a "bitter renter." Sorry if the facts about the local RE market are causing you such psychic pain. To calm your nerves, perhaps a session with Agent 007 is in order (you know, "Bong, James Bong").

MB_Watcher · 9 months ago

Since that is my comment let me explain further. My main point is that buyers will view the location unfavorably in a time of ample choices. So that's negative price pressure. Pacific is busy during both rush hours, being one of 2 streets with a light at Rosecrans. A 4-way stop means you hear cars braking and revving up as they go again. The refinery: Obviously, overall, many people do not see it as a reason to avoid the area. Tens of millions of dollars' worth of homes change hands in the immediate vicinity every year. I have rarely if ever smelled a smell from the refinery when in the area or heard about one. Periodically people post here saying it's definitively NOT a risk, or definitively a risk. Gotta look at that issue yourself. There is noise from the refinery at times, probably the main impact other than the view.

shaykh · 9 months ago

and every seller wants to hear the sweet song of the sucker sung in a soft falsetto. You know how it goes, although you probably havent heard it since it topped the charts in '05. It goes.. full price proffered/all cash offered no contingency/sell it to me bargain? 'sup?/value will only go up! a super jumbo fits/now back to my bong hits

COTC&amp;#039;s Poet Laureate · 9 months ago

You obviously have way too much time on your hand.

huggys alter ego · 9 months ago

hmmm... just wondering what terrorists might target. Refineries, airports, hmmm... Just saying.

Quimby · 9 months ago

So when prices are on the way up it's a great time to buy because it's going to get more expensive with time...when prices are on their way down it's a great time to buy because it's less expensive now then it used to be (but they can't possibly go any lower). A can't miss approach! And if things continue to be so rosy...what happened to the stiff competition from builders? They don't know it's a great time to buy? Can't have it both ways. Markets don't operate like that.

Sage Advise · 9 months ago

Huggy congratulations for finding some ringers to further your fantasy. I am not sure why you waste your breath as every newspaper in the country - correction those still in business - says the same thing regarding our economy. Our government, from the President on down, is working feverishly to try and manage the mess, and yet you continue with your drivel. For each of your examples there are many more representing despair. What you don't understand is that your fact spinning, pit bull tactics and skewed version of reality, is what drives everyone to hate realtors. It would be nice for see you bring something positive to this blog for a change and represent your industry properly. You don't have to agree with everyone, but being such a jerk isn't getting you anywhere. Oh for the record, I own my home. When I say own I mean as in no mortgage. I have lived here many decades and my eyes have seen just about everything. I know more about this town than you ever will.

I don&amp;#039;t like Exhaust · 9 months ago

Thanks MB Watcher. As I have only driven by the house during off-peak hours, I hadn't considered the line-up of cars at the stop signs. I have seen you point out this issue before regarding other challengingly located properties. The idea that for an hour in the a.m. and an hour in the p.m., you'll have 4 or 5 cars lined up at that intersection spewing exhaust, clearly makes the property less desirable. I guess that explains why the new construction directly across the street at 3413 Pacific hasn't sold in 109 days despite the $250,000 drop in list. I'll be curious to see what the house goes for.

Thanks, Sage · 9 months ago

I love posts like this. I've been dying for some true locals to weigh in. It seems the ones who spew on here, who just like to hear themselves 'speak", are people who discovered this town after Y2K. And for the record, I'm jealous that you own your home outright. Terribly, horribly jealous...I'll admit it! Good for you!

Newbie · 9 months ago

Sage: I couldn't have said it better. I would like to meet some long time residents to discuss the history of MB eseceially that of Bruce's Beach.

Country Girl · 9 months ago

I have been wondering if there are any long term resident in MB. I come from a small town in Indiana and there most seniors are long term residents. It seems like MB is just the opposite, am I wrong?

Smuggy · 9 months ago

Cue Huggy to spout off about how James isn't a real man's realtor...a manyly realtor would have said that "now is a great time to buy!"

Smuggy · 9 months ago

Huggy, how do these four homes going into escrow (not all will close if recent trends hold...) and one closed sale make even the slightest dent in the MACRO problem of exceptionally high inventory relative to demand? You seem to be the one who'se lost touch with the big picture.....

Smuggy · 9 months ago

Ouch...that one is going to leave a bruise..even on a thick skull like Huggy's

Fact Checker · 9 months ago

Huggy - Grow some cajones, stop cherry picking individual sales and report the macro facts...How's total MB inventory these days?

Dumbledore · 9 months ago

But since most of the banks are now zombies....high inflation with little available credit. If we are lucky, a zombie will eat Huggy's brain soon

Dumbledore · 9 months ago

Wages are unlikley to rise anytime in the foreseable future....unemployment rocketing to over 10% in LA county, 30M plus unemployed in China. Won't be too hard to find replacement workers. Oh, the SAG strike is going to be a ral shot inthe arm for the LA area economy.

Dumbledore · 9 months ago

Stopped by one of Rich VR's failed auction houses in east MB today for kicks. He's asking almost $500 per square foot...LMAO. The agent on premise started talking about comps from last year...how quaint. Eventually, the only thing he could think of was to say "this house is really big". GIven that comparable finish quality Tree section houses are going for less than $400 psf, I'd guess that Rich is in for some adjustement. On the other hand, perhaps his reputation for high quality builds will deliver the premium he seeks. LMAO. Maybe Huggy can take over the listing and do a better job of spouting BS to prospective buyers....

Impossible Task Dept · 9 months ago

Even I can't do anything with those properties (I'm assuming you're referring to the ones on 2nd and 11th Streets). Btw, those properties were never subject to auction. Rich pays cash so no mortgage and no foreclosure. And, yes, they are big.

Dumbledore · 9 months ago

Huggy, my post didn't mention or even hint at foreclosure. Becoming a bit paranoid are we?

Too True · 9 months ago

"Even I can't do anything with those properties" uh huh. you couldn't find your ass with both hands.

Drako Malfoy · 9 months ago

Huggy mght be able to find his ass...its sitting right on top of his neck