DISQUS

Sandman · 9 months ago

Suggestion. If you want to do more polls, don't only focus on properties that are so badly priced. Here and there a well-priced home would be a fitting subject too. If the "bears" are too extreme they will get more of those wrong.

Love it · 9 months ago

Hate the price but looove this home......it is really nice with a great backyard.I'm just jealous I can't afford it!

Neighbor90266 · 9 months ago

I am with MBC and "Love it." We saw this home last year and found it comfortable, sunny, really nice. It would be at the top of my list in the tree section right now. Really the only issue is price.

cramer! · 9 months ago

I hate it at 2.3 but i love it at 1.5! buy buy buy!

hitler parody · 9 months ago

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM

anon · 9 months ago

I remember that poll and I am pretty sure I voted for won't sell. Homeowners have a big disinclination to take a loss (don't we all!). I figured they would not drop to market because it would cut into their d/p presumably. Now I would think it does sell near 2.2, just my opinion.

zero · 9 months ago

Or don't do any more polls. What do you learn?

Frustrated Homeowner · 9 months ago

Why do we need realtors anymore? The internet gives us the information that used to be exclusive to agents. Agents are not typically well educated, anyone can get a license. Even when they contact each other regarding property, they are not truthful with each other regarding the status, they 'play' it. And yet, they "deserve" these enormous commissions? I can place my own ad in the Beach Reporter.....and read People during Open Houses.

Yuppie · 9 months ago

I agree, thats the issue with the entire MB market right now. Nobody wants to take a loss. The only diff between some other zip codes and 90266 is that the 66 folks have the cashflow to sit on things or don't have mortgages. We are going through the worst economic downturn since the depression but us MB homeowners like to think that despite the nationwide woes our values won't drop below 2002 prices....the Ostrich in the Sand Section mentality...

billy · 9 months ago

The land that this house is on would sell for 1.3 right now and the house could be replaced for 250 a sq foot all in or a total of 900 k so replacement value all in is 2.2 million so i vote for 2.2 anyone see my numbers of construction cost for this house as off?

shaykh · 9 months ago

I've bought and sold 4 homes in up and down markets and brokers or salespeople have usually added more value than the commission I've either directly or indirectly, but always grudginly paid them. I've also always taken 30-40% off the usual rate by negotiating the percentage in advance, so that's helped the value proposition. There are a lot of issues that always come up and they are better at handling them than I. But it certainly is possible to do it on your own; just make sure you know what you are doing; it aint brain surgery as they say. Just remember *everything* about a RE transaction is negotiable-- make the negotiation work in your favor.

shaykh · 9 months ago

2.0 - 2.15

Lot Size? · 9 months ago

So how big is the lot, actually? What $/SF are lots trading for in the trees? How big a premium does this lot demand for the location?

ub19433 · 9 months ago

Frustrated I too am fairly anti-agent, with a caveat or 2. When you are seeking to purchase a house, specifically in this market, I think they add little to no value. The past decade in MB has been too easy for them. Trust me, many do not do the basic due diligence required because they have been able to be sloppy and lazy feasting off an ever increasing market. Relax Hugs, I have been through several transactions in the past 18 months and lets just say your bretheren left themselves open to litigation based upon their actions. When purchasing I do not need to pay someone a percent or 3 for walking into a house and making an offer. That said I would at least retain an experienced real estate attorney when purchasing becasue things do go wrong. My caveat is on the sell side. I do think that an agent adds some (not much and ever decreasing) value here. I have typically made my agents on the sell side work for minimal commissions or have gone with one of the cut rate shops. Using them to sell and market has been effective and has removed a few headaches. Also some of the good ones will be realistic in pricing to market, but inevitably must cave to sellers wishes. In general to I think that all agents will be forced towards the catalyst/redfin model within the next 20 years. The writing is on the wall even here in MB, sorry hugs....

anonymous · 9 months ago

I like for sale by owner and have knocked on doors and used the assessor's office for owner names pre-internet. You could find motivated (realistic) owners, and long-time owners could offer carry-backs, etc., especially good for them for cap gains purposes. It was win-win. Then, the builders came in with cash, and prices got really out of whack. There is precious little realism by owners, at least in this area, now, everyone seems 'entitled' to their half-million dollar profit for living in a house for 3 years, presumably because they think themselves masters of the universe (or lil' old MB) and were so very upwardly mobile and savvy to buy a home here. Maybe that will change in the next few years. Or not. (Off soapbox now.) My second choice is to use the listing agent as my buyer's agent. And, I always prefer to sell with an agent. There are too many things that could go wrong and I want the insurance that an agent provides (and btw, pays for through their business.) That said, I have seen some really unethical things go down by agents in positions of fiduciary duty on several transactions.

anonymous · 9 months ago

I am the poster above, and want to say there are absolutely, positively NO agents I have used in this area that I would bring my business back to (as a seller, the only reason I have to contract with them.) And as a multiple-time buyer and seller, I have dealt with many (two agents per deal.) Mostly, I cringe with memories of bizarre experiences (and sometimes anger) when I see their signs around town.

UB Clueless · 9 months ago

Clueless, thy name is ub19433. For one thing, it's Catalist, not catalyst. More importantly, you can stick a fork in them and in Redfin because they are both done. The discounters require big volume to make up for the small margins generated by discounted commissions. That volume is gone and so are their profits. Look for Catalist to close their doors any day now as they've completely burned through their VC funding trying to keep their Titanic-like business model afloat. Not to mention the fact that their founder, Hal Ellis, took the big dirt nap and their COO in charge of all their branches is leaving at the end of this month (to explore 'new opportunities' - yeah right). Yep, good call there UB. You've really got your finger on the pulse of the real estate brokerage business. You say you've been through several transactions in the past 18 months? I think the only transactions you've participated in involve controlled substances. Say, isn't that your bong I hear calling you?

U r dinosaurs · 9 months ago

So clueless.....you think the other agencies are just so skilled that they won't be closing their doors soon? Real estate agents are very similar to used car salesmen. Seriously, they aren't exactly the smartest bulbs in the box. They had their time...I know you want to protest that but really, what do they have to offer? You aren't dealing with Riverside here....residents here are more savvy than a door knocking Shorewood agent is giving them credit for.

Savvy You&amp;#039;re Not · 9 months ago

Sorry, loser, but you're wrong again. Let me spell it out for you as simply as I can (and I'll type slowly to aid your comprehension). The local full service RE brokerages and agents will go away when homesellers and homebuyers stop hiring them. It's really that simple. There is no requirement that someone looking to buy or sell a home hire a realtor. So why do they keep doing hiring realtors? Even today, in Manhattan Beach, there are 240 active listings for single family homes and townhomes plus another 37 in escrow, all listed by local agents. Meanwhile I can count the number of FSBOs on one hand and have fingers to spare. Bottom line: Full service realtors continue to get hired because they are still necessary to the homebuying and homeselling process, even more so in a challenging RE market. So keep coming to this site for your anti-realtor therapy and to cure your landless bitterness. The discounters are about to crash and burn but the full-time, full service agents will survive (and, once we weed out the part-timers, thrive) in the current environment.

XOXO · 9 months ago

Keep hanging on, old-timer...the youngsters find it amusing

LMAO at Huggy · 9 months ago

Huggy - It is amusing to read your prediction about the demise of Redfin. I'm a VC. I know their investors. Redfin is growing and will continue to be funded. Don't hold your breath waiting for them to go away. If they need to cut back on their expansion to control their burn rate, they can easily do it. Their CEO has a reputation for being very focused on the financials. Look at the travel booking market during the internet bust in 2000. Travel bookings declined, but companies like Priceline, Travelocity and Expedia didn't go away...in fact they thrived. Buyers seek value in tough times. Buyers also seemed to like the transparency that these players provide. Redfin's recently added "history" feature seems to be a good step towards tapping this desire. How many on this blog have had agents share this much info in the past?

still LMAO at Huggy · 9 months ago

The people going away right now are the traditional agents. I have a friend who works with one the bigger MB brokerages. He beleives they've had 25% to 30% of their agents quit or be downsized. Hmm. Go ahead Huggy, call me names, make your bong accusations. Deep down inside, as you guzzle the Maalox to keep your scotch down, you're worried. You also have a sizeable fixed "burn rate". How many homes do you need to sell to cover costs? Is volume keeping up these days. Do you have investors to support you going forward like Redfin does? Maybe its time to move to that trailor park in Phoenix Huggster...some good deals to be had there...

Ph.D. · 9 months ago

I have used a realtor as seller once, and it was not a negative experience. But I don't understand what she did for the HUGE fee. I think a 2% fee is reasonable, or perhaps a flat fee plus expenses but the current structure is out of control. On a side note, she was a complete and total ding-bat, no big surprise.

Gorillas In The Mist · 9 months ago

Wow, more fantasies from the baboon brigade of the COTC. Let's start with the first LMAO. Look, loser, no one but you believes you are a VC hanging out with a bunch of fellow stoned cult losers on this blog so why even bother with the charade? You want to come to the defense of Redfin because you and your clueless cult have a pathological need to believe that traditional agents are being squeezed on their commissions, go right ahead. Here's the bottom line on Redfin - four sales TOTAL over a period of two years in the entire South Bay. That's $4,143,000 of total sales or roughly $62,000 in commissions (assuming a 1.5% commission) for two years of work. Oh yeah, that's a real viable business model. The 2nd LMAO gives us the traditional COTC fiction of "I have all these friends who are realtors and they say (insert tripe)." Do your "friends" understand how much you and your fellow baboons hate them? Your friend says agents are being downsized? Agents are independent contractors so they are never downsized, doofus (the brokers want their agents to stay so long as they keep paying their monthly desk fees). The only ones being downsized are the employed agents at the discount firms that are closing their doors like Catalist (their COO just left to pursue "other opportunities"). 2nd, what part of this basic principle - Discount brokers need volume to make up for the small profit margin per transaction and there is no volume - do you not understand? Compared to them, I have virtually no overhead and I'm not overleveraged so if I do fewer transactions now, well, that's the cyclicality of the business. Bottom line: Redfin is hurting, Catalist is "dead man walking", full-time traditional agents will be the last man standing and you and the rest of the cult are still landless losers trying to pretend on this blog that you're something you're not (venture capitalists, homeowners, realtors, conscious). LOL!

tress are cheaper · 9 months ago

There are now scrapers you can buy in the trees for 1.0 million

building trees · 9 months ago

Building new makes sense now that most of the general contractors are sitting around with NO orders on their books for late 09 here is the deal - buy a scraper in the trees for 1.0 - spend a hundred grand having the scraper torn down and the land graded get a GC that has built many houses in the trees - look at each of the houses he built and select one - ask for a carbon copy of one he has already built so you and he know exactly what he will build for you go for mid range finishes - no soapstone or blue stone or expensive stuff - you can get it done all-in for 250 a sq foot so that means on a 3500 sq foot house you are talking 875k to your GC count on 200k for landscaping, permits, and other nonsense add it up and you get a brand new house for 2.175 million now plenty of the GC's on this blog will howl that you can't get the absolute best GC in MB for 250 a square foot and they are right - but you can get one that is good for 250 a sq foot (just not the very best) now is the best time in 10 years to build new in the trees for yourself

anon · 9 months ago

Slim margins, high volume, (excellent customer service) sounds like a decent business plan. I have run a business of that model, and can think of more like any grocery store, Walmart, Target, Zappos, etc. I have heard from the entitled and entrenched South Bay agents that Catalist is going under for years, going on decades now, from the day they opened their doors. It must be a chant at the Thursday morning sales meetings, it really sounds the same. Now eveyone with me... "Catalist going under, Catalist going under..."

anon · 9 months ago

is this an all-cash venture, and frankly, why wouldn't anyone want their cash tied up in a deflationary environment for 12 months or longer? 'cause good luck getting financing.

Baboons Don&amp;#039;t Get It · 9 months ago

Anon, you have no realtor friends and you still can't comprehend the basic principle outlined above (slim margins + high overhead + no volume = shut the doors and turn out the lights). However, I'll bet you are a phenom at peeling a banana with your feet. Btw, has anyone seen a Catalist ad in the Beach Reporter for the past few months? Ever wonder why they stopped advertising?

anon · 9 months ago

Let's talk redfin's total volume. Unlike you losers, their universe does not revolve around 267 houses in Manhattan Beach...

One More Thing · 9 months ago

Oh, and anon, Catalist has only been around since 2001, further discrediting your claim that your realtor friends have been touting Catalist's demise "going on decades". Now back to the bong, loser.

anon · 9 months ago

I never said I had realtor friends. I was their potential Client. And as I am not in the industry I don't know or care how long Catalist has been around. I just know what I've heard from you ad nauseum for years. You know you've hit a nerve when the personal insults start flying.

Just Years? · 9 months ago

I just know what I've heard from you ad nauseum for years. You meant to say 'for decades' right? LOL!! You were a potential client? Right, and I'm Pres Obama (no earmarks for you).

Endangered species · 9 months ago

Your commissions are out of control. (You know it and are having some anger issues with that.), that's why SAVVY people in this town keep forcing you to drop them lower. I understand the soles of your shoes get worn down from door knocking the hood...but that isn't our problem. You are dinosaurs, Gramps. You can barely get all of your agents to read your emails.....a little too technical I guess.

Educated · 9 months ago

Huggy, don't you need to run to a Short Sale class for some DRE credit?

anon · 9 months ago

The 3 stages of Huggy's desperation: 1. Pompously rolling out the numbers in a dubious attempt at 'insider industry knowledge' 2. Moving on the personal insults 3. Discrediting: Now, they're just lying! Next time I invite you to my kitchen table for your dog and pony show, you can tell me all about Catalist. K?

Huggyl&amp;#039;s biz model · 9 months ago

Huggly, remember when the standard commission was 6% (3% for listing agents, 3% for selling agents). Now the standard is 5% and the banks on REOs and short sales are pushing it down further. Doesn't that tell you something about your business model? It's a model that has high margins which can be undercut. And no barriers to entry (save for that GED, answering 75% of a multiple choice test correctly and coming up with a few hundred bucks to join an MLS). It's no longer a necessity (especially when sellers have multiple ways to list their houses for sale without using an agent -- and yet still get their houses seen through web searches). One caveat, for what is generally people's largest business transaction, use a lawyer. You know, someone with multiple degrees who had to pass a REAL test and has a REAL fiduciary duty.

anonymous · 9 months ago

all that work and risk for your very own mid-range Tree Section house does not sound like a good deal.

Right on, Bonzo! · 9 months ago

Again, for the mentally challenged, like the preceding commenter, I'll type slowly - 277 homes in Manhattan Beach that are currently for sale or in escrow - of that number, none are listed with a discount broker. Number of FSBO's - 2, maybe 3 max. Number of buyers, sellers choosing to use a RE lawyer rather than an agent - zero. Number of baboons it takes to repeat the same COTC pablum over and over - I don't know, how many stoned and bitter renters are there in MB? Case closed.

Glass Houses · 9 months ago

Hbm aka RBD, so, exactly what degree do you possess to work at your TV station? Yeah, that's what I thought. BTW, based on the amount of time you spend on this blog, something tells me you're not the general manager at the station or management in any capacity , but a technician pulling down just under six figures. Attacking another person's profession and their income can be a slippery slope especially when you consider the layoffs in the media industry.

anon · 9 months ago

Just too stupid to respond to. Now Right On knows what off-the-MLS sales and transfers are happening in every attorney's office and escrow company in the entire world! Stick to pushing your 277 MLS-listed MB homes, please.

Goodbye, Huggly · 9 months ago

Whatever Huggly. I notice how you DID NOT comment on the fact that the de facto commission standard has dropped by 16 2/3% from 6% to 5%. It's the beginning of a downward trend. You also didn't mention the lower commissions on lender-involved sales. And my point was not to use a lawyer instead of an agent, but to use a lawyer in ANY transaction. Finally, you did not address my analysis of your biz model -- with margins that may be undercut and low barriers to entry. Once again, you fail to understand what contributors to this blog continue to point out -- the trends are down--in prices, commissions, etc. Yours is a dying breed. Keep taking the tranquilizers to ease the pain.

thankful · 9 months ago

Another serial murderer just arrested in Santa Monica. Thank god my family lives here in Manhattan Beach. Let's not forget what unifies us all - bulls and bears, renters and owners. We are lucky to live here in MB and not in some other beach town

anonymous one · 9 months ago

I remember, your office refused to provide their in-house listings to Catalist's database. I do not know if that is still the case. I and you know who you are. Catalist was a precursor to Redfin.

LMOA still · 9 months ago

Anon is right Huggy..Redfin offsets their monthly burn with TOTAL NATIONAL SALES. You and the other dinosaurs don't pool sales volume on that scale. ...and you don't have patient investors who will keep writing checks...

Huggy = Bonzo · 9 months ago

Huggy, there are lots of listings...but very few things clsoing these days. There are probably also 277 agents in MB these days, down from 400 a year ago. How long will the remaining 277 be able to hang on with another commission? The weakest one of the bunch will be setting the market price curve for commissions going forward. Competition among dinosaurs will drive commission rates down...even lower in the months ahead. If you ask nicely Huggster, I'll give you another brochure for the trailer park in Phoenix.

Swinging Richard · 9 months ago

Huggy seems to be escalating from his usual bitchy self to one very angry individual. Huggy, I suggest you take off your sunglasses because your future ain't bright.

Baboon GetsOne Right · 9 months ago

Catalist was a precursor to Redfin. Exactly, oh clueless one. And just as Catalist is about to close its doors, Redfin will certainly follow, just as surely as cluelessness is a prerequisite to membership in your cult. Rest assured, though, you have no clue who I am. Remember - cluelessness is part of your cult's name; having a clue would be a violation of your own by-laws or something;-)

bondinvestor · 9 months ago

MBW, i know it's outside of your bailiwick, but you should really do a piece on the total s**tshow that is developing on the westside. the number of homes for sale in prime areas of the palisades (huntington, alphabets, el medio, etc) and brentwood (north of sunset) is staggering. the inventory of spec mansions, 2yr holds, etc are all exploding. what happens on the westside this spring is going to be ugly. a lot of these home owners stretched and now are trying to get out at break even or with a modest profit. but there are no buyers. a year from now all these houses are going to be on the market again as REO. (remember folks, obama isn't giving jumbo borrowers any handouts.) the nicer parts of LA are going to see their own version of the "cramdown" over the next 18 months. as in - home prices are going to be cramed down to the level that pushes prices in line with incomes. this is going to have a huge impact on every part of town. I wouldn't be surprised to see prices in MB reach 99/00 levels. i figure if the median income in MB is $300k per year (median - not the high end. i know that strand & sand & hill will sell at massive premiums) then the typical tree section house should sell for roughly 3x the median income / 80% = $1.1m. that's about where prices were at the turn of the decade, which feels about right to me.

Funny Goodbye · 9 months ago

Goodbye, what an absolute howler of a comment. The rest of the COTC needs to take lessons in cluelessness from you. I won't address all your nonsensical statements (who has that kind of time) but fyi, you said- I notice how you DID NOT comment on the fact that the de facto commission standard has dropped by 16 2/3% from 6% to 5%. Duh, maybe that's because 5% became the "standard" (if you can even refer to a totally negotiable item as standard) in the early to mid-90s. That's some trend line. Good job at keeping current on recent developments. You said, Once again, you fail to understand what contributors to this blog continue to point out -- the trends are down--in prices, commissions, etc. And, with comments like yours, I'm sure the declining IQ trend line on this blog just steepened. In case you missed it, I provided median sales data that MBW (you know, your cult leader) used in his January 6 comment to show a declining price trend. "Contributors?" Is that what we're calling the screeching baboons in the COTC now?

RB_dude · 9 months ago

Greetings from Austin! Just back from Antone's... OMG! I thought I would check in and see what was happening, and huggy's head is about to explode!!!! Haven't seen him/her/it's demeanor so agitated. Remember, hugs, Better RETRAIN, before it's too late! 9:40 pm Texas time, going back down to 6th and Congress, y'all! Maybe Momo's... later!

abe · 9 months ago

Austin rocks - be sure to take the boat ride under the Congress bridge at sunset and see the bats come out for the evening - and grab bkfst at Ciscos and lunch at Chuys Except for the million degree weather in the summer, austin is a fine place to hang out. Houses cost one sixth of MB

haha ha · 9 months ago

Right - West Side prices will fall 40% people can't afford their mortgages

huggy = loser · 9 months ago

four sales in the past two years is a lot better than what you're doing, huggy.

wow · 9 months ago

WOW! look at those charts go! thats pretty amazing. prime ARM resets havent really even kicked in yet. <a href="http://westside-bubble.blogspot.com/2009/03/month..." target="_blank">http://westside-bubble.blogspot.com/2009/03/month...

Duh · 9 months ago

dude...if you're paying 100k to scrap and grade you are being taken for a ride! Are people really that stupid around here? ps....why the hell would I spend 2.2 building my own pad when I can scoop up a new place for 1.8???????????????????

anon · 9 months ago

RB, just so we understand you clearly. Are you saying that you are in "Fantasy Austin." As in you "own a house in MB," or actual Austin as in, you own nothing, but bombard this blog with posts?

MB Homer · 9 months ago

If you have to check in on this Blog when you're visiting Austin you are a bigger loser than even Huggy thinks...come on Dud ..checking in on this insane asylum when you're in the only place worth a s#$ in all of Texas??!?!! Disappointing at the very least.

Where&amp;#039;s RBD? · 9 months ago

MB Homer said you are a bigger loser than even Huggy thinks I don't think that's possible. Remember, MBH, this is the guy who pretended to be a homeowner so he could excoriate actual MB homeowners. For all we know, he spends his days hanging out at the RB library reading Travel & Leisure, saw an article on Austin and jumped on the computer to check in with his favorite obsession, the Hugster. Right now, I'm commenting from Angkor Wat in Cambodia. The temple is spectacular (see how easy it is?).